- S&P 500 Projections:
- Weekly projected resistance: 5528 (cash), 5558 (futures)
- Weekly projected support: 5443 (cash), 5453 (futures)
- Monthly projected resistance: 5474 (cash), 5484 (futures)
- Monthly projected support: 5144 (cash), 5154 (futures)
- 2024 yearly projected resistance: 5274
- 2024 yearly projected support: 4289
2. Recent Market Performance:
- The S&P 500 saw a low of 5420.40 on Monday, June 17, 2024
- It reached a high of 5505.53 on Thursday, June 20, 2024
- For the week, the index ended 33.02 points higher, a 0.6% gain
3. Cycle Analysis:
- 45-day cycle: 14 days along, bullish
- 90-day cycle: 43 days along, bullish
- 180-day cycle: 43 days along, bullish
- 360-day cycle: 162 days along, bullish into late 2024/early 2025
- 4-year cycle: 1069 days along, bearish into late summer 2024
4. Short-term Outlook:
- The upward phase of 45 and 90-day cycles is expected to continue into early-to-mid July
- Potential for the S&P 500 to reach the 5550’s or higher before topping out
- Major resistance seen in the 5560-5650 range for S&P 500 cash
5. Mid-term Outlook:
- A correction is anticipated from the July peak into mid-August
- The 70-day moving average is seen as a potential price target for this correction
- Another rally is expected into mid-September
- A larger correction is then anticipated into late October, just before the November election
6. Long-term Outlook:
- The correction into late October is expected to be counter trend
- A strong rally of 13% or more is predicted into late 2024/early 2025
- This rally could potentially push the S&P 500 to the 5795 level
- A sharp correction of potentially 15% is then expected in Spring 2025
7. Presidential Cycle:
- The cycle is projected to peak in late 2025 or later
- Potential upside target of 6100-6300 for the S&P 500
- A significant decline is expected in late summer to early autumn 2026
- Another rally is anticipated into 2028-2029, potentially peaking an 18-year cycle
8. Technical Indicators:
- NYSE advance/decline line shows divergence against price, seen as a negative signal
- Mid-Term Breadth index also shows divergence, supporting the expectation of a correction
- The 50-day moving average is above the 200-day average, a long-term bullish signal
- The rising 200-day moving average is also seen as bullish for the bigger trend
9. Bradley Indicator:
- Next smaller-degree turn set for July 1st, 2024, potentially marking a high point
10. Risk Factors:
- Despite the overall bullish outlook, the author notes several technical warning signs
- These include divergences in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, utilities, and the percentage of stocks above their 50 and 200-day moving averages
- These signals support the potential for a larger decline (20% or more) in the future, though not immediately expected due to the election year