Market Close: The S&P 500 Cash Index closed at 5615.35 on July 12, 2024, with weekly projected resistance at 5682 and support at 5539.
Cycle Phases: The current upward phase of the 45, 90, 180, and 360-day cycles is expected to continue into mid-July or later, with potential for the S&P 500 to reach 5650 or higher.
Short-Term Outlook: A significant peak is anticipated to form in mid-July, followed by a countertrend decline into mid-August, before turning back to higher highs in September.
Shorter Cycles: The 45-day and 90-day cycles are expected to peak on or after mid-July, with a potential upside target of 5700-5725 for the S&P 500.
August Correction: After the mid-July peak, a correction into mid-August is expected, with the 35 and 70-day moving averages acting as potential targets.
Longer Cycles: The 180-day and 360-day cycles suggest a continued upward trend into late 2024 or early 2025, with potential targets of 5795 and 5743-6064 respectively for the S&P 500.
Major Peak and Correction: A major peak is anticipated in late 2024 or early 2025, followed by a sharp correction into the spring of 2025, which is expected to be countertrend.
Presidential Cycle: The presidential cycle suggests the next major peak around late 2025, with a subsequent low in late summer to early autumn of 2026.
Market Breadth: Market breadth indicators are generally supportive of the bullish trend, with the NYSE advance/decline line recently breaking to new highs.
Sentiment: Sentiment indicators remain in a buy signal, though approaching levels that could trigger a sell signal.
Technical Indicators: Technical indicators, including the relationship between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, support a bullish long-term outlook.
Bradley Indicator: The Bradley indicator suggests the next significant turn could be a low around August 19, 2024, aligning with the projected 45 and 90-day cycle trough.